BP Forecast: Shared, Autonomous EVs Will Help Drive to Peak Oil Before 2040

Summary:

  1. Trends are accelerating toward a lower-carbon future.

  2. BP revised its renewable energy forecast up in the latest Energy Outlook, projecting that renewables will increase their share of total power generation from 7 percent today to around 25 percent by 2040.
  3. Global energy demand in the ET scenario grows at around 1.3 percent over the Energy Outlook period, down from over 2 percent in the previous 20 years.
  4. Efficiency gains in passenger and freight transport, as well as aviation and marine, will increase energy use in transport by only 25 percent over the forecast period, which is far less than the 80 percent increase during the previous 25 years.
  5. “This slowing in demand growth is largely due to energy intensity (energy used per unit of GDP) falling more quickly than in the past: global GDP more than doubles over the [forecast period], but energy consumption increases by only 35 percent,” the report states.
  6. In the ET scenario, there are nearly 190 million electric cars by 2035, which is nearly double the 100 million EVs forecast in the base case of last year’s Energy Outlook.

Sources: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/bp-forecast-autonomous-electric-vehicles-peak-oil#gs.SPaPp1k

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/energy-outlook-downloads.html

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